Monday, October 11, 2010

Reflexivity

According to the AP story, "American economists in the buzz for Nobel:"
STOCKHOLM – Research into market behavior and the psychology of decision-making could be awarded the Nobel prize for economics on Monday and improve the weak U.S. representation among this year's Nobel laureates.

Betting agency Ladbrokes says American behavioral economists Richard Thaler at the University of Chicago and Robert Shiller of Yale University are the top bets for this year's award.


I like that their first source is a betting agency who reported which economists were their biggest bets. Nobel economists being chosen by a betting agency, and an economy run through boom and bust on bets. The economists probably also relied on fMRI studies of risk behavior to base their theories. A popular tool to study risk behavior is a 4-deck choice game where the participant needs to discover and chose from the winning deck--classic betting behavior. Reflexivity at its finest.

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